Louisiana Economy Forecasting Model Provides Projections for Q1 2025 through Q4 2025
February 17, 2025
The Department of Economics within the LSU E. J. Ourso College of Business launched the Louisiana Economy Forecasting Model in 2023 as a service to the state. This model provides economic forecasts for Louisiana and the state’s nine metropolitan areas for the current quarter and three quarters ahead. New forecasts are published quarterly.
At the state level, forecasts are generated for four key economic variables: real Gross State Product (GSP) (a measure of the real value of goods and services produced within Louisiana, analogous to national real GDP), total non-farm employment, the total unemployment rate, and the Louisiana house price index. Due to data limitations, only total non-farm employment is forecast at the metro level.
Dashboard Highlights
The forecasts for the first quarter of 2025 through the fourth quarter of 2025 suggest continuing slow growth in state economic activity and slow employment growth in all but four metro areas.
At the state level, employment for this forecast horizon is forecast to grow at a rate of only 0.8%. Total employment at the end of 2025 is forecast to still be below its peak in the fourth quarter of 2014. In the Alexandria, Hammond, Lake Charles, and Monroe metro areas, employment growth of less than 1% is forecast, and growth of slightly greater than 1% is forecast for the Shreveport-Bossier City metro area. Forecast growth rates for the Baton Rouge, Houma-Thibodaux, Lafayette, and New Orleans-Metairie metro areas are 1.4%, 1.7%, 1.7%, and 1.3%, respectively.
The unemployment rate is forecast to continue its slow decline, interrupted by a pandemic spike, from the late-2010 value of 7.8% to 3.8% in the fourth quarter of 2025.
The disappointing performance of real GSP, the best single measure of overall state economic activity, over the last 20 years is forecast to continue with real GSP forecast to grow slowly at a rate of 1.1%.
After rising sharply during the pandemic, increases in the all-transactions Louisiana house price index slowed sharply in 2022, and house prices are forecast to rise at a rate slightly greater than 1% for the current forecast period.
See the details in the forecast report.
REVIEW THE CURRENT LOUISIANA AND METRO-LEVEL FORECASTS
About the Department of Economics
The Department of Economics at LSU’s E. J. Ourso College of Business offers courses that provide undergraduate and graduate students with strong analytic training and the tools to understand the economic and social problems faced both domestically and internationally. The numerous awards received and peer-reviewed scholarly articles published in high-quality economic journals demonstrate the faculty’s commitment to quality teaching and research.
For more information, visit the Department of Economics or call 225-578-5211.