LSU expert in social and economic issues: Rural America’s unique struggles affect how it votes
October 28, 2024
Tim Slack, LSU Department of Sociology professor
LSU sociology professor Tim Slack uses his research and expertise to share a closer look at rural Americans’ lives and challenges as they prepare to vote in the 2024 election.
An expert in social and economic issues, Professor Slack explains the unique struggles facing rural communities—like changes in jobs, health concerns, and population shifts.
In this Q&A, he clears up common misunderstandings about rural life, discusses the problems rural voters face, and explores how these issues may affect their votes in this important election.
What is your area of expertise?
I am a professor of sociology at LSU. My research coalesces around the areas of social stratification and social demography with an emphasis on geographic space and the rural-urban continuum as axes of difference. With my colleague Shannon Monnat (Syracuse University), I recently authored the book Rural and Small-Town America: Context, Composition, and Complexities, published by the University of California Press.
What are the key socio-economic challenges facing rural voters in this election?
Wow. Where to start? There are so many myths and misunderstandings about rural America.
One is that “rural” is synonymous with farming. To be sure, agriculture is a vital industry in terms of sustenance and national security. But technological advances and farm consolidation—the shift from many smaller farms to fewer larger farms—means most rural Americans don’t have direct economic ties to agriculture anymore.
The two largest sectors of employment in rural America today are services and manufacturing, respectively. A concern regarding the service sector is that it produces jobs that vary greatly in quality depending on people’s educational level; good professional jobs for the more educated and lower quality jobs—low wages, low hours, and few to any fringe benefits—for less educated folks. Those good professional jobs tend to be concentrated in urban areas (the emergence of remote work may reshape this in the future).
Manufacturing employment, which has historically been the “good jobs” sector for less educated people, has been in steady decline in terms of its share of jobs for the past 50 years. While people sometimes think of plant and factory work as urban, it has provided a larger share of jobs and earnings in rural America for decades. Deindustrialization is causing real pain in rural America: it is one thing for a plant to shut down in a large and diversified metropolis, but quite another when it is the lone “good jobs” employer in town.
Other big issues are the challenges posed by population aging and youth out-migration in rural America, as well as increasing racial and ethnic diversity. Another is the factors underlying the “rural mortality penalty”—that rural America has higher death rates and lower life expectancy than urban America.
These are all pressing issues.
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What role will rural voters play in this close presidential race, and what may sway their vote?
Rural voters will play a key role in this election, assuming the margins end up being as close as they have been in the last two presidential cycles. A persuasive working-class message and a sense that rural people and places are seen—that they aren’t just “flyover country”—will help. Given that the two leading candidates hail from New York City and San Francisco, both picked running mates with a rural and small-town backstory as a nod to that constituency.
All of that said, the power of the rural vote should not be overstated. The contemporary U.S. is mainly an urban society, so the winning candidate will ultimately pull most of their votes from cities and suburbs.
Can you discuss any recent research on how rural voting patterns have evolved over the last few election cycles?
The short answer is that the rural vote has been steadily trending Republican for decades. The last presidential election in which voters in metropolitan and nonmetropolitan counties were essentially equal regarding party preferences was in 1976 when Jimmy Carter was elected. Since that time, the percentage of nonmetro votes for the Republican candidate has trended steadily upward. In 2020, roughly two-thirds of the nonmetro vote went to Donald Trump, more than 20 points higher than in metro counties.
That said, rural voters are not a monolith. The flip side of the 2020 numbers above is that roughly 1 in 3 voters in nonmetro counties cast their ballot in the other direction. And rural places with majority Black, Latino, and Indigenous populations often vote in the Democratic column. Moreover, you have political legacies particular to certain places that matter—like the left-leaning Farmer-Labor Party in Minnesota (today the Democratic-Farmer-Labor Party or DFL) or the rural state of Vermont electing a socialist to the U.S. Senate (Bernie Sanders). So, there are notable deviations from the aggregate trend.
“ The problems and prospects facing rural America in the 21st century matter for this nation. Personally, I would love to see a less ideological and more pragmatic politics emerge that puts that in focus. ”
How do political campaigns target rural voters, and how effective do you think these strategies are?
This is a bit outside my area of expertise, and I want to stay in my lane. But I will raise two issues.
One is what the political scientist Katherine Cramer has called “rural consciousness”: a belief that rural areas are ignored by policymakers, that rural areas do not get their fair share of resources, and that rural folks have distinct values and lifestyles that are misunderstood and disrespected by city folks. The message from some quarters that rural people vote “against their own self-interest” or vote “the wrong way,” essentially that they are rubes, feeds into this.
The other issue is that much of rural America is a local “news desert.” That is, there simply are no sources of comprehensive and credible local news. So, people rely on cable TV news or—if they have access to broadband—the internet. The result is that all news becomes national, even when those issues may have little bearing on local life. It used to be said that “all politics is local,” but in today’s media environment, that is increasingly untrue.
Is there anything else you want to add?
I would just emphasize that common myths and misunderstandings about rural America run deep. Rural America is not a paragon of stability, social and economic change abounds. And rural America is not a monolith, it is socially and regionally diverse. The problems and prospects facing rural America in the 21st century matter for this nation. Personally, I would love to see a less ideological and more pragmatic politics emerge that puts that in focus.
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