New Model by LSU Researchers Could Help Predict Gulf of Mexico Hurricanes
Researchers determine a way to forecast rough hurricane seasons in the Gulf of Mexico by looking at atmospheric temperatures in spring
09/16/2021
BATON ROUGE – By analyzing the temperature of the atmosphere several miles above the
Earth, researchers have found a way to predict how many hurricanes may sweep through
the Gulf of Mexico in the summer and fall.
These new models for Gulf hurricane prediction can help governments plan disaster
responses and mitigate the danger presented by hurricanes like Ida.
“Our paper was trying to develop a specific forecast to meet that need,” said Paul
Miller, LSU Department of Oceanography and Coastal Sciences assistant professor and
lead author of the new study in the AGU journal Geophysical Research Letters, which publishes high-impact, short-format
reports with immediate implications spanning all Earth and space sciences.
Climatologists have developed several ways to predict the intensity of the hurricane
season. But most of these look at the Atlantic basin as a whole rather than just the
Gulf. Geographic and climate conditions are quite different in the Gulf of Mexico,
which is a sub-basin of the Atlantic.
“The Gulf of Mexico is a very active sub-basin of the Atlantic,” Miller said. “Last
year, Louisiana alone hosted five named storms.”
Storms are more likely to form earlier in the hurricane season in the Gulf than in
the Atlantic. At times of peak ocean surface temperatures from August to October,
the storm systems are born within the Gulf and can utilize the available energy to
rapidly intensify. In addition, because the Gulf is almost entirely enclosed, these
storms usually involve some sort of land impacts.
These factors are why it’s important to be able to predict how many hurricanes may
impact the Gulf, but up until now there has not been a good way to do so.
Miller and his co-author Jill Trepanier, LSU Department of Geography & Anthropology
associate professor, examined model records kept by the National Center for Environmental
Prediction starting in 2012 to look for trends that might reveal ways to predict storms
in the Gulf.
They first tried to look at traditional atmospheric indicators used by the existing
seasonal storm forecasts for the Atlantic region but didn’t find the usual relations
and trends that work for predicting storms in the Atlantic.
Instead, they noticed a correlation between the temperature about halfway up the troposphere,
the lowest layer of Earth’s atmosphere, and the number of storms. While this 500-millibar
area shifts up or down depending on how warm the atmosphere is, it sits roughly about
3.7 miles above the Earth’s surface. Miller and Trepanier developed the model they
used with data they gathered between 1979 to 2010.
The average temperature of this area above the Gulf predicted by models run in May
can accurately anticipate how many storms are likely to come through the Gulf from
June to November—the typical storm season there.
The model works a little better in predicting heavy storm seasons than average storm
seasons, Miller said. For example, it more accurately predicted that an elevated number
of storms would pass through the Gulf in 2020.
Miller said that the government can use this model to better prepare resources for
disaster mitigation, whether it’s setting up shelters or other issues. Industries
like offshore oil and gas operations can also use it to slow down operations in advance
of possible stormy patches.
“We felt that this was a really important thing to do,” Miller said.
Additional Link:
Predicting the Gulf of Mexico Hurricane Season With 500-hPa Temperature, Geophysical Research Letters: https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2021GL094741
Contact Alison Satake
LSU Media Relations
510-816-8161
asatake@lsu.edu
Liza Lester
American Geophysical Union
202-777-7494
news@agu.org